Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

Post last updated on March 22nd, 2020

This will be my last update to this post for a while. We have now passed the threshold of being able to use the common flu as a comparison, it was wishful thinking and a good exercise but the numbers don’t lie. We are now having consecutive days of more deaths by Coronavirus vs common flu. The death rate of closed cases now sits at 13% and has been on this rise. This is nothing like we are being told so the real number is very hard to figure out. This is only the death rate of cases that were severe enough for medical attention to be sought. There will be many cases that have never been reported and probably never will. This page here is a great resource for the fact hunter to monitor.

To the point facts so far

  • Event 201 was held in October 2019 and simulates what is happening now.
  • Coronavirus is now confirmed to be spreading as easily as through close contact breathing. This makes it extremely dangerous and hard to control. The latest studies have shown that the virus can remain suspended in the air for up to 30 minutes.
  • Coronavirus lives on surfaces for up to 3 days depending on the surface type. 3 days for metal surfaces. 1 day for cardboard, and only 4 hours for copper.
  • 3-5 days is the average amount of time a person will be asymptomatic yet still transmitting, up to 14 days has been confirmed though.
  • Dry cough and fever are the most common first symptoms.
  • Most will survive so do not panic, it does nothing for anyone. Over 80% of cases so far have been reported as mild to no symptoms. It is unknown how many people have had mild to no symptoms without being diagnosed and included in the stats.
  • The over 60’s and those with pre-existing health conditions are the most at risk, we need to protect them.
  • It is said that Ibuprofen should not be used to bring down the fever, instead, you should use Paracetamol/Acetaminophen. This is not a proven issue but the general consensus is that anti-inflammatory can have undesired effects
  • Most countries that hit 100 cases seem to then have 1000 cases after 7-11 days.
  • The 9 countries that have currently moved from 1,000 to 10,000 cases seem to have reached that number in 7-11 days also. From there it is exponential growth vs the chosen actions of each government. Our first exception is South Korea who took action around 5,000 and has managed to at least slow it down but not stop it.
  • The 4 countries that have currently moved from 10,000 to 50,000 cases did so in under 2 weeks.

With so much panic on the increase, I am doing my best to remain positive and rational while maintaining perspective. If we were tracking Common Flu deaths in the same way that we are tracking Coronavirus deaths everyone would think that the World was ending. There have been over 100,000 deaths from the common flu this year so far. Since we are familiar with seasonal flu it has been a logical statistic to use for perspective. That perspective now shows that Coronavirus is nothing like the flu, the common flu has a steady number and it is not on an exponential curve. The media definitely isn’t helping with perspective.

When I first wrote this post I was able to see worldometer charts and a separate page for the seasonal flu, now they have been put offline. That in itself is a little suspect to me but I will try not to read into it. I can still get access to the current live stats for seasonal flu so I will track manually from here on. An exponential curve has now kicked in for COVID-19 vs seasonal flu. The global economy is now at risk of complete collapse!

Original post date – March 2nd, 2020
Coronavirus deaths year to date = 3080
Common Flu deaths year to date = 82356

Updated for March 10th 11th 12th13th
Coronavirus deaths 4269 4590 (+7.5%)4947 (+7.8%)5395 (+9%)
– Daily Change321357448
Common Flu deaths 92631 93765 (+1.2%)95068 (+1.4%)96463 (+1.5%)
– Daily Change 113413031395
Updated for March 14th15th16th17th
Coronavirus deaths 5819 (+7.9%) 6455 (+11%) 6717 (+4.1%)7513 (+11.9%)
– Daily Change 424636262796
Common Flu deaths 97963 (+1.6%) 99051 (+1.1%) 100350 (+1.3%) 101598 (+1.2%)
– Daily Change 1500108812991248
Updated for March 18th 19th 20th 21st
Coronavirus deaths 8312 (+10.6%) 9837 (+18.3%)11186 (+13.7%)12777 (+14.2%)
– Daily Change 1799152513491591
Common Flu deaths 103026 (+1.4%) 104435 (+1.4%)105715 (+1.2%)107054 (+1.3%)
– Daily Change 1428140912801339

The percentages I am tracking are the increase from the previous day and are rounded up or down to the closest first decimal place. Make no mistake, the mortality rate for the Coronavirus is much higher than seasonal flu and we have now passed the threshold of being able to use it as a comparison.

Original Post – March 2nd

Why the panic?

With the amount of press coverage, it is near impossible for you to not have heard about the Coronavirus. On the one hand, I think it is great how the whole World can be reached like this if needed. On the other hand, I wonder if it is the press that has caused all of the panic? and if it is actually needed? To answer these questions rationally some research is required. Opinions are always just that, established data and ‘the numbers’ tell the truth.

What is Coronavirus?

This is the first question to address, what is this Coronavirus? It seems that this particular strain is just one of a group that we have seen before. These Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Recent examples of similar viruses are the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). The fact that this current one has not been previously detected in humans makes it novel (nCoV), they are calling it COVID-19.

What are the symptoms?

The symptoms seem very familiar to me and I’m sure most of you will agree. Cough, fever, respiratory problems, shortness of breath. Essentially not too much different than a bad case of the flu. If a severe case develops though the infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure, and in some cases that can lead to death.  Once again, similar outcomes to well-known viruses such as the Flu only leaning towards more severe.

How long is the incubation period?

The current estimate is that the symptoms of COVID-19 usually appear within around five days or less in most cases, but the range could be between one and 14 days. This definitely puts the nail in the coffin of any containment hopes.

What are the statistics so far?

After understanding what it is my initial thoughts go back to why this has so much press and panic? I realize and respect that this is new, it is killing people, and the reach of the media is extreme these days. Here is some global data that to begin with that has been collected on March 2nd, 2020.

  • There are currently 90,211 confirmed cases in 75 countries
  • 3,080 people have died so far from the coronavirus COVID-19
  • The death rate for under 9-year-olds is 0%
  • The death rate for patients with no pre-existing conditions is 0.9%
  • The death rate for patients under 40 is just 0.2%
  • The death rate for patients 40-50 is just 0.4%
  • The death rate for patients 50-60 is just 1.3%
  • The death rate for patients 60-70 is just 3.6%

No disrespect to people over 70, I only use that as a cut off because it is where the death rate increases dramatically. Much more so when you look at 80+ year-olds who are the most impacted. It’s worth noting that the same is true with the seasonal flu so that part of the information is not surprising. You can check the Live Coronavirus Statistics Here.

Coronavirus vs the others?

You might be wondering how this Coronavirus compares to its predecessors, me too. All I can do to determine this is via more statistics and I can simplify my findings. In a nutshell, Coronavirus has a mortality rate that is much higher than the seasonal flu. Coronavirus has a much lower mortality rate than SARS which in turn had a much lower mortality rate than MERS. However, the general statistics show that the higher the mortality rate, the lower the reproductive rate (how fast it can spread). SARS is however quite close in its reproductive rate but SARS had a higher mortality rate. All in all, the closest comparison we have for the Coronavirus is SARS. I think that now is a good time to also note that the Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year despite its low mortality rate.

Can it be contained?

There is a lot of money being spent on containment but it has spread globally anyway. When it comes to the reproductive rate of any flu-type virus, and the way they are transmitted, containment is very hard. It does make me wonder if the money could have been spent more wisely and based on lessons learned from history?

Should we join the panic?

To conclude this article I enter into the World of my opinion only. I don’t think that panic helps any situation so I don’t sign on to that one. Naturally, I would prefer not to get the infection so I will do whatever I can within reason. I don’t even like getting the regular flu, I’m not sure anyone does. Wash your hands, maintain social distance, stay in shape and eat healthy foods. I did get the H1N1 virus when I visited Brazil and there was a lot of fuss about that one too, it felt like a bad but very temporary 2-3 day flu to me. The Coronavirus appears to be much worse than that one though.

Coronavirus will most likely only die out naturally as it mutates and fewer people are vulnerable to the mutation. The only question is how long that will take and how many mutations it will need. The longer it takes the more the death toll it will leave behind. the younger and healthier you are the better your statistical chances. Probably not the best time to travel, let’s give this one a month a see where it is at! If a vaccine appears way faster than ever before in history it will raise many questions.